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INDUSTRIAL UPDATE

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Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production Index

103.2

Total Industrial Production Index

+0.68% (YOY)

Published by the Federal Reserve, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) is a monthly metric that gauges the actual production levels in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities, compared to a reference year.

99.3

Manufacturing

0.0% (YOY)

120.9

Mining

+0.3% (YOY)

90.4

Business Equipment

-4.3% (YOY)

106.4

Materials

+1.4% (YOY)

101.2

Construction

+0.9% (YOY)

Monthly 2022 vs 2023 vs 2024:

Capacity Utilization

77.6

Total Capacity Utilization Index

-1.27% (YOY)

The percentage measure of how efficiently a country or business is using its potential manufacturing and production capabilities.

76.6

Manufacturing

+1.3% (YOY)

90.8

Mining

-0.9% (YOY)

Monthly 2022 vs 2023 vs 2024:

Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in December. At 103.2 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in December was 0.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.

Industrial Labor

Manufacturing Sector Unemployment Rates

3.5%

Manufacturing Unemployment Rate

+16.6% (YOY)

Indicates the percentage of individuals in machinery manufacturing who are 16 years or older and are nonagricultural private wage & salary workers without a job.

2.0%

Machinery

-35.4% (YOY)

3.5%

Chemical

+20.6% (YOY)

0.0%

Petroleum & Coal

-9.9% (YOY)

2.2%

Electrical Equipment

-12.0% (YOY)

2.0%

Computer & Electronics

-25.9% (YOY)

5.4%

Food

+1.8% (YOY)

Monthly 2022 vs 2023 vs 2024:

Manufacturing Unemployment Rate

246.0

Manufacturing Producer Price Index

+1.1% (YOY)

The producer price index quantifies the percentage fluctuation in prices that domestic producers receive for goods and services.

185.4

Machinery

+2.6% (YOY)

350.8

Chemical

+0.1% (YOY)

293.1

Petroleum & Coal

-7.5% (YOY)

202.0

Electrical Equipment

+1.8% (YOY)

103.0

Computer & Electronics

+3.2% (YOY)

262.2

Food

+3.3% (YOY)

187.0

Paper

+3.0% (YOY)

Monthly 2022 vs 2023 vs 2024:

The December 2024 U.S. jobs report closed the year with impressive momentum, adding 256,000 jobs and surpassing analysts’ predictions of 153,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, signaling continued strength in the labor market as employment levels returned to pre-pandemic norms.

Manufacturing, a critical component of the industrial sector, contributed significantly to this growth. Job gains in engineering (7,400) and construction (8,000) were notable, reflecting robust demand for skilled labor. Utilities, a standout performer, saw its unemployment rate drop to an industry-low of 1.2%, underscoring operational efficiency and workforce stability.

Overall, December’s report caps a strong year for U.S. employment, with manufacturing showing resilience and utility jobs leading the way. As industrial demand remains high, ongoing investments in workforce development and infrastructure will be key to maintaining this growth in 2025.

Shipping

$2.11

Dry Van Spot Rates

0.0% (YOY)

$2.39

Flatbed Spot Rates

-1.2% (YOY)

6.14

Dry Van Load-To-Truck Ratio

+82.1% (YOY)

15.68

Flatbed Load-To-Truck Ratio

+94.7% (YOY)

Load-to-Truck Ratio (LTR) Analysis for December 2024

December 2024’s load-to-truck ratio (LTR) reflected robust freight demand despite seasonal slowdowns. Early in the month, load post volumes rebounded sharply following the short Thanksgiving workweek, though they remained 14% lower than last year’s post-holiday surge. Carrier equipment availability tightened significantly, with equipment posts down 26% year-over-year. As a result, the dry van LTR reached 6.50, marking a 16% increase over the same period in 2023.

Mid-month trends showed load volumes 24% higher than the same period last year, resembling the heightened spot market activity seen during the pandemic. Compared to historical norms, Week 50 volumes were 27% higher than the long-term average dating back to 2016. With carrier equipment posts still limited, the dry van LTR held firm at 5.74, nearly double December 2023 levels.

Summary

December’s elevated LTR highlights continued strong demand in the spot market, driven by tightening capacity and increased holiday shipping activity. This environment signals ongoing challenges for shippers and opportunities for carriers, as constrained equipment availability supports higher rate potential heading into the new year.

Environmental / Sustainability

Industrial CO2 Emissions

108M

Metric Tons of CO2 Emitted

-3.5% (YOY)

This is a monthly indicator displaying the amount of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector in Million of metric tons.

7M

Coal

0.0% (YOY)

44M

Natural Gas

0.0% (YOY)

26M

Petroleum

-10.3% (YOY)

32M

Electricity

-0.0% (YOY)

Industrial Energy Consumption

Monthly 2022 vs 2023 vs 2024:

2,567T

BTU’s of Energy Consumed

0.0% Tbtu (YOY)

This is a monthly indicator displaying the amount of Energy consumed in the Industrial sector in Trillions of btu (british thermal units)

1,668T

Fossil fuels

-0.8% Tbtu (YOY)

187T

Renewable Energy

+2.1% Tbtu (YOY)

297T

Electricity

+0.6% Tbtu (YOY)

415T

Electrical System Losses

+1.9% Tbtu (YOY)

742T

Petroleum

-1.5% Tbtu (YOY)

Monthly 2022 vs 2023 vs 2024:

Gas & Electricity Costs

$3.28

Natural Gas Prices (Dollars per thousand cubic feet)

-15.8% (YOY)

$8.51

Avg prices of electricity (Cents per Kilowatthour, Including taxes)

+0.9% (YOY)

Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

  • Coal: Coal consumption continued its long-term decline, driven by increased competition from natural gas and renewable energy sources. Production also decreased, reflecting reduced demand in the power generation sector. These trends emphasize the diminishing role of coal in the U.S. energy mix as clean energy initiatives gain traction.
  • Petroleum: Petroleum consumption remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations tied to transportation and industrial demand. Crude oil production stayed strong, balancing export growth. This stability suggests ongoing resilience in the petroleum sector despite shifts toward electrification.
  • Natural Gas: Natural gas saw seasonal consumption spikes for heating and electricity generation. It remains a key transitional fuel, with future demand growth tied to industrial and power sector reliance as coal usage declines further.
  • Renewables: Solar and wind energy capacity continued rapid expansion. Their growing share of electricity generation reflects both policy support and cost competitiveness, contributing to the gradual displacement of fossil fuels, particularly coal, from power generation.

Electricity

  • Shift in Generation Mix: A continued transition from coal to natural gas and renewables marks significant changes in electricity generation. Economic factors, such as lower natural gas prices and renewable incentives, are driving this shift. The expansion of renewable capacity is expected to solidify clean energy’s dominant position.
  • Electricity Prices: Regional variations in electricity prices reflect fuel cost changes and the evolving generation mix. Grid modernization investments may contribute to temporary price increases, while broader renewable adoption could lead to long-term stabilization.

Forward-Looking Implications

  • Energy Markets: Expect further reductions in coal reliance as regulatory pressures and clean energy adoption grow. Petroleum demand will likely remain strong in sectors less adaptable to electrification, while natural gas will bridge the energy transition.
  • Renewable Energy: Continued investment in solar, wind, and grid infrastructure will be critical for sustaining the momentum in clean energy, with long-term impacts on fossil fuel dependency and market dynamics.

 

This report highlights a rapidly evolving energy landscape, where policy shifts and market forces favor sustainable technologies, presenting both opportunities and challenges for industrial stakeholders.

Technology & Cyber Security

Ransomware Attacks

Key Observations for December 2024

  • Utilities: No ransomware attacks were reported in December, marking a continued downward trend from 1 attack in both December 2022 and 2023. This decline highlights strengthened cybersecurity frameworks and improved risk management in the sector.
  • Construction: Ransomware activity remained at zero in December for the second consecutive year, a significant improvement from 4 attacks in December 2022. The absence of incidents reflects progress in mitigating vulnerabilities, though earlier spikes in 2024 emphasize ongoing risks.
  • Manufacturing: December 2024 recorded no ransomware attacks, a sharp decline from 7 in December 2023 and 1 in December 2022. This marks the first month in 2024 with no manufacturing-related incidents, signaling potential success in threat detection and response measures.

Year-Over-Year Trends

  1. Steep Reduction in December Attacks: Across all sectors, ransomware incidents fell to zero in December 2024, compared to 8 attacks in 2023 and 6 in 2022.
  2. Overall Decline in 2024: Total ransomware incidents in 2024 decreased significantly, particularly in manufacturing, where attacks dropped from 76 in 2023 to 45. Construction saw a dramatic reduction, while utilities remained relatively stable but improved in the latter half of the year.

Conclusion

December 2024’s ransomware statistics showcase remarkable progress, with zero incidents reported across utilities, construction, and manufacturing. This achievement underscores the effectiveness of recent security measures but also emphasizes the need for ongoing diligence as ransomware threats continue to evolve.

Safety

Workplace Fatalities

Common Causes of Workplace Fatalities

2022

2023

2024

Key Observations

  1. Yearly Trends

    1. Decline in Deaths: Workplace deaths have declined significantly from 829 in 2022 to 631 in 2023, and just 169 in 2024 (through October). The sharp drop in 2024 signals improved safety protocols, regulatory enforcement, and technological advancements in workplace safety.
    2. Seasonal Variations: Historically, fatalities peak in warmer months, likely due to increased outdoor and construction activity. However, 2024 data shows a significant reduction in summer fatalities, indicating effective intervention strategies.

    Cause of Death Insights

    1. Falls: Consistently the leading cause of fatalities across all years. While deaths from falls have decreased (321 in 2022 to 46 in 2024), they remain a top concern. Focused efforts on fall prevention systems and training will be critical.
    2. Struck and Crushed: These causes are the second and third most common across all years. Reductions in these categories (43 struck and 26 crushed deaths in 2024) suggest improved equipment safeguards and situational awareness training.
    3. Electrocutions and Drownings: Declining numbers suggest better adherence to electrical safety standards and improved procedures in high-risk environments.
    4. Workplace Violence: A modest decline, with 30 cases in 2022 dropping to 9 in 2024, underscores the importance of workplace behavioral programs and violence prevention measures.

    Key Insights

    1. Significant Safety Improvements: The dramatic drop in workplace deaths in 2024 reflects the success of enhanced safety measures, regulatory compliance, and investment in technology such as fall arrest systems and advanced PPE.
    2. High-Risk Activities: Industries involving heights, heavy equipment, and outdoor environments continue to be the most hazardous. Targeted interventions remain necessary for construction, manufacturing, and industrial sectors.
    3. Cultural Shift: The decline in fatalities suggests a growing cultural emphasis on safety and health in the workplace. This trend is supported by better training programs, stricter enforcement of OSHA regulations, and improved incident reporting practices.

    Looking Forward

    1. Sustained Focus on Leading Causes: Efforts to address falls, struck-by incidents, and crushing hazards must continue. Innovations in safety equipment and stricter enforcement of safety protocols can further reduce these fatalities.
    2. Behavioral and Preventative Measures: Expanding programs to address workplace violence and situational awareness training will help tackle preventable deaths.
    3. Leveraging Technology: Investing in automation, wearable safety tech, and predictive analytics can further mitigate risks in high-hazard industries.
    4. Education and Training: Continuous training programs focused on hazard recognition and response will reinforce a proactive safety culture.

    Conclusion

    The downward trend in workplace deaths, particularly in 2024, reflects commendable progress in industrial safety practices. However, continued vigilance and innovation are essential to sustain this momentum, with a focus on eliminating preventable deaths and improving safety standards across industries.

Commodities

Energy

$118.15

Coal (per ton)

-7.3% (YOY)

$75.99

Crude Oil (per barrel)

+1.7% (YOY)

$0.93

Propane (per gallon)

+15.0% (YOY)

$73.95

Uranium (per pound)

-30.2% (YOY)

Metals

$3,307

Steel (per ton)

-14.6% (YOY)

$4.30

Copper (per pound)

+14.2% (YOY)

$101.21

Iron Ore (per ton)

-25.6% (YOY)

$45.50

Titanium (per kilogram)

-3.4% (YOY)

$956.60

Platinum (per troy ounce)

+7.1% (YOY)

Agricultural

$585.54

Lumber (per 1K board ft)

+6.1% (YOY)

$1.94

Rubber (per kilogram)

+26.4% (YOY)

$488.45

Corn (per bushel)

+9.5% (YOY)

$67.50

Cotton (per pound)

-20.5% (YOY)

$4,272

Palm Oil (per ton)

+9.4% (YOY)

Industrial

$5,964

Kraft Pulp (per ton)

+6.8% (YOY)

$2,654

Aluminum (per ton)

+22.6% (YOY)

$7,880

Polyethylene (per ton)

-3.6% (YOY)

$469.00

Molybdenum (per kg)

+5.8% (YOY)

$2,918

Zinc (per ton)

+18.8% (YOY)

Commodity Price Highlights – January 2025

  • Energy: Coal (-7.3% YoY) and uranium (-30.2% YoY) prices declined as clean energy transitions continue. Propane (+15% YoY) surged due to strong winter demand.
  • Metals: Steel (-14.6% YoY) and iron ore (-25.6% YoY) fell, easing construction costs. Copper (+14.2% YoY) and aluminum (+22.6% YoY) rose, driven by renewable energy demand.
  • Agricultural: Lumber (+6.1% YoY) stabilized, while rubber (+26.4% YoY) increased on automotive demand. Cotton (-20.5% YoY) dropped due to improved supply.
  • Industrial: Polyethylene (-3.6% YoY) prices eased, while zinc (+18.8% YoY) remained elevated from construction demand.

Outlook

Expect continued cost pressures in metals linked to green technologies, while energy markets remain influenced by seasonal and geopolitical factors.

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Sources:

  • Unemployment Rate: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04032232?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
    • Petroleum & Coal: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag324.htm
    • Chemical: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag325.htm
    • Computer & Electronics: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag334.htm
    • Electrical Equipment: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag335.htm
    • Machinery: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag333.htm
  • Industrial CO2 Emissions: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec11_7.pdf
  • Industrial Energy Consumption: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec2_11.pdf
  • Natural Gas Price: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec9_15.pdf
  • Electricity Price: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec9_11.pdf
  • Dry Van Spot Rates: https://www.dat.com/trendlines/van/national-rates
  • Flatbed Spot Rates: https://www.dat.com/trendlines/flatbed/national-rates

 

  • Flatbed Load to Truck:  https://www.dat.com/trendlines/flatbed/demand-and-capacity
  • Project Fallout: https://www.industrialinfo.com/dash/gapMenu.jsp
  • Project Spending: https://www.industrialinfo.com/dash/industryMenu.jsp
  • Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm
  • Manufacturing Alliance Report 2024: Manufacturing-Alliance-2024-Digital-Transformation-Report.pdf
  • Safety: https://www.osha.gov/severe-injury-reports
  • Ransomware: https://www.comparitech.com/ransomware-attack-map/
  • https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Attacks on Industrial Sector

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